Apple's Foldable Entry Creates a Three-Way War in the $200B Market

The Foldable Market Just Got a Third Player—and It’s the Biggest One

China launched its newest foldable phones on September 7. Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone on September 9. Samsung, the incumbent with a commanding lead, responded by plastering billboards for its Galaxy Z Fold8 across six global landmarks—from Seoul’s Gwanghwamun to Tokyo’s Shibuya Station and London’s Piccadilly Circus.

The timing is not coincidental. Huawei and Xiaomi rushed their announcements to claim attention before Apple arrived. In the foldable market, being first is everything.

What we are witnessing is not merely another product launch cycle. The foldable phone market—now valued well above $200 billion and projected to grow 37 percent next year—is becoming the single most important battleground in global smartphone strategy. And for the first time, it is a three-way contest between Samsung from South Korea, Apple from the United States, and Huawei from China.

Western analysts have been slow to notice this shift. They still frame the foldable story as a Samsung versus everyone story. But the numbers tell a different tale.

Who’s Winning Right Now—and Why It Won’t Last

Counterpoint Research estimates that Samsung holds 38 percent of the foldable market this year, Apple 25 percent, and Huawei 22 percent. Those Apple and Huawei figures reflect expected shipments of devices not yet released—a significant revision that signals how dramatically expectations have shifted in just months.

Samsung’s 38 percent share rests on five years of first-mover advantage. The company introduced the world’s first commercially viable foldable phone in 2019 and has since iterated through eight generations of its Z Fold and Z Flip lines. Its recent Galaxy Z Fold8 continues to dominate in markets where foldables have moved past early adopters into mainstream consideration.

But Samsung’s position is now under direct pressure from two directions. Huawei has spent years developing foldable technology behind a wall of U.S. sanctions, and its Mate XT2 tri-fold—priced between 19,999 yuan and 24,999 yuan, roughly 4 million to 5 million Korean won—represents a bold engineering bet. The Mate XT2 uses a “G-shape” folding design with both panels folding inward, a subtle but meaningful departure from the outward-folding “Z-shape” of its predecessor. That change suggests Huawei studied Samsung’s tri-fold launch in December 2025 and adjusted its approach accordingly.

Huawei’s previous Mate XT sold out instantly at pre-order. The XT2 did the same. That consumer response sends a clear message: in China’s premium segment, Huawei can move product without relying on Google’s mobile ecosystem or U.S. chips.

Xiaomi, meanwhile, is playing a different game. Its Xiaomi 18 Fold is priced at 19,999 yuan to 34,999 yuan—roughly 2.2 million to 3 million won. CEO Lei Jun openly targeted Apple, claiming the Xiaomi 18 Fold is lighter than the iPhone Pro Max. Xiaomi is betting that a competitively priced, spec-rich foldable can carve out a share of the market Samsung and Apple will fight over.

The Apple Variable

Apple’s entry is the single largest unknown in this equation. The company has not yet revealed the price of its foldable iPhone, tentatively codenamed “iPhone Ultra.” But multiple sources, including Reuters, suggest it will land in the 4 million-won range—significantly above Samsung’s Z Fold8, which starts at 2.27 million won and tops out around 3.15 million won.

That price gap is the central tension of this entire competition.

Samsung’s foldable phones have always occupied a niche: expensive, experimental, and aimed at tech enthusiasts and business professionals willing to pay a premium for novelty. The market has grown steadily but remained narrow. Apple’s entry could change that math entirely. A single product announcement from Cupertino has historically shifted demand curves across the entire smartphone industry. A foldable iPhone at 4 million won would not merely compete with Samsung—it would force Samsung to either match Apple’s pricing or redefine its value proposition.

Jang Hyun-jun, managing director of semiconductor and display business at Sigma Intel, put it bluntly: Apple’s foldable sales volume will become the benchmark for how much price Chinese and Korean consumers will tolerate. If Apple moves a million units at 4 million won, the entire market reprices upward. If it stalls, the premium tier collapses.

The stakes extend beyond any single product launch. Jang also noted that generative AI is a structural driver behind growing foldable demand—larger screens make AI assistants, document editing, and media consumption more practical. This is not a luxury accessory market anymore. It is becoming a productivity platform.

What Happens Next

The most immediate consequence of Apple’s entry is competitive pressure on Samsung. The Korean company is already running a global advertising campaign to defend its number-one position, but advertising cannot substitute for feature advantages. Samsung will need to accelerate its own foldable roadmap or risk being squeezed between Apple’s brand power and Huawei’s pricing aggression in key Asian markets.

For Huawei, the opportunity is clearer. Apple and Samsung will battle over Western and premium markets. Huawei, unshackled from U.S. restrictions, can focus on capturing the Chinese market and expanding into Global South territories where Apple’s premium pricing limits reach. The Kirin 9050 Pro processor in the Mate XT2, developed entirely within China, removes the dependency that has constrained Huawei’s premium lineup for years.

Xiaomi occupies a volatile middle ground. The company has bet on volume and value, but entering a market where both Samsung and Apple are raising the bar creates real risk. If the iPhone Ultra captures mainstream premium buyers, Xiaomi’s positioning between Samsung’s legacy and Apple’s novelty becomes harder to defend.

The cumulative shipment of foldable phones will cross 100 million units by the end of this year, according to Counterpoint. By 2027, that number should jump 37 percent. The market is large enough—and the growth fast enough—that all three companies can win in different segments. But the company that sets the price expectation, rather than following it, will define the category.

That is the real question Apple faces. The iPhone Ultra is not just a new product. It is an attempt to reclassify foldable phones from niche curiosity to mainstream necessity. Whether consumers in Seoul, Shanghai, or San Francisco are willing to pay 4 million won for that reclassification remains the most important unresolved question in the smartphone industry today.