Iran and Oman are sidelining the US in a deal that could reshape global energy

The US Wasn’t Invited

Iran and Oman have drawn up a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz — and left Washington out of it. The agreement, announced by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi on Tuesday, establishes a 7-mile-wide transit route beginning in Iranian territorial waters and ending partially in Iranian waters as well. On paper, it looks like a narrow step toward normalizing passage. In reality, it is a calibrated demonstration of Iranian sovereignty, and a quiet diplomatic coup over American influence in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since early March, when Iran sealed the waterway in response to US-Israeli strikes on Tehran that began on February 28. Before the war, roughly 130 ships per day carried more than 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas from Gulf producers through this narrow chokepoint. Brent crude, which hovered around $66 a barrel before the attacks, surged past $120 in March and spiked again to over $100 in July as the conflict dragged on.

The June interim ceasefire, codified in a memorandum of understanding, required Iran to keep the strait open for 60 days free of charge. But the deal’s vague language created two competing routes: a southern corridor backed by Oman and the US, and a northern one controlled by Iran. That ambiguity never resolved. And now, with the MoU having lapsed, Iran is moving unilaterally through Oman — a country that Washington considers a close ally.

Who Wins, Who Loses

Oman walks away with its long-standing role as mediator intact. The Omani foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, told his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in Tehran that the countries would “soon announce” the corridor and that technical talks on a permanent arrangement would follow. There was no mention of the US. Oman, which has maintained neutrality and acted as a backchannel between Tehran and Washington for decades, is positioning itself as the indispensable gatekeeper — someone who can negotiate with Iran without American permission.

Iran wins something more tangible: control. For the first time since the war began, it is formalizing its authority over the strait through a bilateral framework with Oman rather than being forced to negotiate directly with the United States. Iranian army spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia made clear what that control means: vessels will be subject to surveillance and will only pass with Iranian permission. The US accusation that Iran has planted sea mines in the strait has never been confirmed, but Gharibabadi warned that any American mine-detection vessels entering the area would become “very good targets.” Trump claimed the US destroyed all 28 Iranian mine-laying boats in the strait’s international waters; Gharibabadi dismissed that as market-calming fiction.

The United States loses credibility. Trump has spent months demanding that Iran relinquish control of the strait as a condition for peace. Yet here is Iran, reaching a deal on the waterway’s future with Oman directly — the very outcome Washington spent months trying to prevent. Laleh Khalili, a professor of Gulf studies at the University of Exeter, put it bluntly: a solution mediated without US intervention that formalizes Iranian control shows how impotent Washington has become in the Gulf.

The Mine Question

One unresolved detail hangs over every ship that might use the new corridor: the mines. The exact number and placement of Iranian sea mines in the strait remain undisclosed. Iran has not confirmed placing them, though it has said its designated routing minimizes risk of encountering them. The corridor Iran and Oman have agreed on is wide — 7 miles — but wide enough for what? If mines are concentrated in certain lanes, even a broad channel does not guarantee safety. No coordinates have been released. No timeline for mine-clearing has been set, despite Araghchi and Albusaidi’s joint statement referencing a project to clear mines. That project does not yet exist on paper.

And there is the question of fees. Under international law, tolls for passing through natural waterways like Hormuz are forbidden. But countries can charge for services — insurance, environmental protection, docking. Whether the new agreement includes any service charges remains unknown, and it is likely to become the next sticking point. Iran has floated the idea before; the US has vetoed it.

What Happens Next

Trump offered a glimpse of how Washington will respond. Earlier this month, he threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of a US-Iran deal — language that treated an American ally almost as an obstacle rather than a partner. On Wednesday, an IRGC spokesman accused the US of obstructing the Iran-Oman negotiations, causing delays. Whether those accusations are genuine or propaganda, they signal a diplomatic fracture between two countries that have maintained a 200-year partnership.

The most likely path forward is not a quick reopening of the strait but a prolonged period of controlled, conditional passage. Iran will permit some ships through the corridor while retaining the right to inspect and deny others. Oman will manage the operational details on the ground. The US will watch from the outside, still enforcing a naval blockade of Iranian ports and pressing new sanctions — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently targeted 60 entities worldwide for facilitating Iranian oil sales — while having no direct say in how the strait operates.

For global energy markets, the immediate effect is marginal. The corridor is temporary. It is narrow in practice even if wide on paper. And Iran has made clear it will not consider the strait fully open until the US fulfills its side of the lapsed June deal — sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets. Those conditions are not going away.

But the strategic shift is real. Iran has turned the strait into a bargaining chip it controls bilaterally with Oman, not multilaterally under American oversight. In a region where the US once guaranteed freedom of navigation, the message from Tehran is simple: you can sanction us, bomb our ships, and pressure our neighbors, but the waterway belongs to us and Oman now.

That may be the most important detail in a deal everyone is still trying to figure out.