Iran War Six Months In: Who Profits, Who Pays
Six months into the US-Israel war on Iran, life has collapsed for most of the country's 90 million people — but the IRGC's grip has tightened even as the rial plummets and inflation hits 89 percent. The real story is who is profiting from the ruin.
The Fracture Line
Six months after US and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and decimated Iran’s military leadership on February 28, the Islamic Republic is still standing — and it is still crushing the people it claims to protect.
The war’s economic toll is not distributed evenly. That is the central fact of Iran today, and one that English-language coverage has largely missed.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the late supreme leader’s son, has taken his father’s place. He remains deliberately out of public view, a sign not of humility but of caution. The IRGC has been replenished with new commanders loyal to the same chain of command. The message from the top is consistent: no capitulation. Diplomacy is discussed in back channels through Oman, but Washington — under Donald Trump — has made clear it wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened fully and on its own terms, not through an Iranian-Omani transit arrangement that would give Tehran a diplomatic fig leaf.
Meanwhile, the riel hit a record low of 2.06 million to the dollar this week. Inflation is running at 89 percent year-on-year. Food inflation has exceeded 127 percent. These are not abstract numbers. They describe a country where a data analyst in Tehran — making three pay bumps over three years — now earns less than $500 a month in purchasing power, down from over $1,000.
Who Wins
The IRGC wins. The apparatus that survived the assassination campaign intact has consolidated its position precisely because the war demanded loyalty over merit. New commanders have replaced the dead ones, but the institution itself has not been diminished — it has been reinforced by the logic of siege.
Those with access to dollars win. Iranians who can move capital out of the riel and into hard currency, or who have foreign income, have seen their relative position improve even as their nominal salary collapses. This is a country where $1,000 a month was once middle-class and $500 is now survival.
Iran’s neighbors watch with a mixture of fear and calculation. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — where sea traffic has dropped to a fraction of pre-war levels — has sent shockwaves through global energy markets. But it has also given Iran leverage it did not have before the war. Every day the strait remains constrained is a day Tehran proves it can disrupt the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.
Who Pays
Everyone else pays. The 90 million Iranians outside the IRGC circle are living in a country where fuel quotas have been cut, electricity is unreliable, and natural gas shortages are being prepared for ahead of winter. One of the world’s most resource-rich nations is rationing the very commodities it produces.
The cracks are visible in everyday language. Marjan, a Tehran woman who asked to be identified by first name only, described an exhausting loop: wanting a life without constant clashing and isolation, frustrated that she has no choice to make it happen, carrying on anyway. Bijan, the data analyst, wonders what his life would look like if he had left the country more than a decade ago. Sasan, another young Teheranian, talks about the pain of hopelessness — of always trying and seeing everything work against you.
These are not people on the edge of rebellion. They are people who have stopped imagining rebellion because they have stopped imagining alternatives.
The Crackdown Deepens
The government’s response to economic collapse has been to tighten the screws, not loosen them.
Executions continue weekly, including sentences carried out against people arrested during the 12-day war in June 2025 and the nationwide anti-establishment protests of January. The Ministry of Intelligence published a list last month naming individuals and media outlets that Iranians are forbidden to contact. Cafes, ice cream shops, and private online vendors are being shut down for alleged noncompliance with Islamic norms — a campaign of moral enforcement that accelerated after the 2022 and 2023 hijab protests.
Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written message this week declaring that any act detrimental to social cohesion is prohibited. Hours later, President Pezeshkian told state television the government is struggling to sell its oil and cannot improve living conditions for a besieged population. The two statements together tell the whole story: the regime demands unity it cannot deliver, while admitting it lacks the means to deliver anything at all.
What Happens Next
The diplomacy is stalled. Washington insists on unconditional strait access and has imposed its toughest sanctions ever. Iran says it has an understanding with Oman about a transit route. The two positions are irreconcilable. The nuclear programme remains unresolved. There is no breakthrough in sight.
For Iran’s economy, the coming winter will be the real stress test. Fuel and electricity shortages are already worsening. Natural gas rationing is being planned. The government intends to raise petrol prices within weeks — a move that could provoke the kind of unrest the regime is simultaneously trying to suppress.
The region is watching. Gulf states are balancing between fear of Iranian retaliation and the economic imperative of keeping the strait open. Israel has suffered its own casualties — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s son was reportedly evacuated from the US after threats were made against him.
The question for the next six months is not whether Iran will collapse — the regime has proven resilient — but whether the people inside it will decide that resilience comes at too high a cost. History suggests that economies do not recover from wars while the winners of those wars remain in power. Iran’s war is not yet over. Its consequences are just beginning to accumulate.